NatSecMedia / The Wire Tap · Open Source Analysis · Kyiv, Ukraine
Putin's War on Ukraine
Four Years of Acceleration
Feb 24, 2022 – Mar 28, 2026 · Casualties · Territory · Equipment · Drones · Economics
Sources: CSIS · ISW · OHCHR · Russia Matters · Oryx · Al Jazeera · Mediazona / BBC · SIPRI
Sources: CSIS · ISW · OHCHR · Russia Matters · Oryx · Al Jazeera · Mediazona / BBC · SIPRI
4
Years of full-scale war
Feb 24, 2022 → Mar 28, 2026
Fig. 01
Russian Military Casualties — Cumulative Killed + Wounded (Best Estimates by Quarter)
Sourced from CSIS, UK MoD, Mediazona/BBC KIA identification, Estonian Foreign Intelligence, and Ukrainian GS daily reports. Range reflects contested estimates; midpoint shown. Casualty acceleration per year: 2022 ~300K · 2023 ~200K · 2024 ~430K · 2025 ~415K. 2026 pace: 40,000/month (Feb 2026, The Telegraph).
Fig. 02
Russian Net Territorial Control — Square Miles Gained Since Feb 24, 2022
ISW data via Russia Matters. Peak: ~46,000 sq mi (Mar 2022). Ukraine liberated ~54% by Nov 2022. Net gains since: 2023: +188 sq mi · 2024: +1,609 sq mi · 2025: +2,171 sq mi · 2026 YTD: +~150 sq mi.
Fig. 03
Ukrainian Civilian Casualties — Monthly Verified by OHCHR
OHCHR verified civilian killed + injured per quarter. Peak in Mar 2022 (4,312 killed). Lower post-2022 figures reflect reduced urban battle footprint, not reduced danger. OHCHR warns real totals are significantly higher. Feb 2026: 188 killed, 757 injured in-month.
Fig. 04
Air & Drone Attack Acceleration — Russian Launches vs. Ukrainian Deep-Strike Campaign (Annual)
Russian drone/missile attacks on Ukraine per year (Al Jazeera, ISW). Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory (RFE/RL, ISW). Russia's Shahed-type production now fully domestic — 404/day in Jan 2026 (Syrskii). Ukrainian drone campaign forced 40% of Russian oil refining offline by Oct 2025.
Fig. 05
Equipment Losses — Russia vs. Ukraine by Category (Cumulative)
Oryx visually-confirmed losses through Jan 2026 (Russia: 24,268 · Ukraine: 11,626). CSIS 2.5:1 Russian-to-Ukrainian casualty ratio mirrors equipment loss ratio. Russian armor losses alone: 13,931 tanks and AFVs.
Fig. 06
Economic Attrition — Defence Spending, Sanctions & Currency Divergence
Ukraine defence budget ($B): 2021 $6.9B → 2022 $41B → 2023/24 $65B → 2025 $71B (SIPRI). Russia GDP growth: +8% cumulative 2022–2025. Ukraine hryvnia: -31% vs USD. Russian ruble: -10%. Ukraine budget deficit: 18.5% of GDP vs Russia 2.6%.
Fig. 07
Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Destruction — Cumulative Capacity Knocked Out (%)
Thermal, hydro, and gas generation capacity destroyed as a % of pre-invasion baseline. By Fall 2025, Ukraine operating at ~33% of pre-war grid capacity. ISW Dec 2025: grid near east-west split. 16hrs/day blackouts reported in Kyiv. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant (6 reactors, 5,700 MW) seized but offline.
Four-Year War Trajectory — Key Inflection Events
YEAR 0
Feb 24, 2022
Full-scale invasion. Russia seizes 27% of Ukraine (161,000 km²) by March. Kyiv offensive fails. Bucha massacres exposed.
YEAR 1
Sept–Nov 2022
Ukraine Kharkiv counteroffensive liberates 74,000 km². Kherson recaptured. Russia retreats from right-bank Dnipro. HIMARS deployed.
YEAR 2
May–Dec 2023
Bakhmut falls (May). Ukraine summer counteroffensive fails to breach defences. War settles into attritional grind. Only 487 km² net Russian gain all year.
YEAR 3
Feb–Nov 2024
Avdiivka falls (Feb). Kharkiv offensive (May) gains then stalls. Ukraine Kursk incursion (Aug) — 1,250 km². Russia nets 4,168 km² in 2024. F-16s arrive.
YEAR 4
Jan–Dec 2025
Pokrovsk falls (Jan 2026). Russia averages 171 sq mi/month. Ukraine drone campaign destroys 40% Russian oil refining. 90% thermal capacity destroyed. Russia: 430K casualties in year.
DIPLOMACY
May 2025 → now
Istanbul talks (May 2025) — prisoner exchange only. Trump envoys (Jan 2026). Witkoff/Kushner facilitate Abu Dhabi, Geneva trilateral talks. No ceasefire as of Mar 2026.
DRONE WAR
2023 → 2026
Russian drone attacks: 6,000 (2023) → 16,000 (2024) → 29,000 (2025). Ukraine deep-strike campaign: 70%+ of Russia oil shutdowns. Russia producing 404 Shaheds/day (Jan 2026).
NOW
Mar 2026
Russia loses 4 sq mi in Feb–Mar 2026. Total 1.25M+ Russian casualties since invasion. Combined dead may reach 2M by spring 2026 (CSIS). Peace talks stalled.
NUCLEAR
Ongoing threat
Putin modifies nuclear doctrine Nov 2024 — conventional attack by nuclear ally = nuclear response. Tactical weapons deployed Belarus Dec 2023. Zaporizhzhia: 6 reactors, IAEA monitoring.
Open Source Intelligence — NatSecMedia / The Wire Tap
Operation Epic Fury — Combatant
Acceleration Analysis
Feb 28 – Mar 28, 2026 · All participants · Strike, casualty & escalation vectors
Compiled: March 28, 2026 · 14:00 UTC
29
Days of war
Active Combatant Actors
8+
State & non-state
+1 Today (Houthis)
Iranian Targets Struck
8,000+
CENTCOM cumulative
130 vessels destroyed
Killed in Iran
1,900+
Red Crescent (civilian)
5,300+ military (Hengaw)
US Troops Killed
13
CENTCOM confirmed KIA
25+ wounded Prince Sultan
Killed in Lebanon
1,189
Lebanese MoH · since Mar 2
3,229 injured
Missiles + Drones at UAE
2,187
357 ballistic · 1,815 drones
15 cruise missiles
Fig. 01
Combatant Entry Acceleration — Active Participants by Day
Cumulative state and non-state actors with confirmed offensive operations. 5 actors on Day 1; Houthis enter Day 29 — first new actor in 26 days. Step changes annotated.
Fig. 02
Iranian Casualties — Cumulative Acceleration
Civilian deaths (Red Crescent) vs military/security (HRANA/Hengaw). Military toll outpaces civilian reporting by 2.5x. Both curves accelerating.
Fig. 03
U.S. Service Member Casualties — KIA & Wounded
13 confirmed KIA over 29 days. Wounded rate accelerates sharply Week 4 — Prince Sultan Air Base struck 3x in final week. Total wounded exceeds 50+.
Fig. 04
Iranian Attack Waves Against Israel — Daily Frequency by Target Zone
ALMA Research data through Day 10; extrapolated Days 11–29. 186 total waves in first 10 days. Tel Aviv absorbs 39% of all strikes. Northern Israel share rises in Week 2 as Iran targets refineries.
Fig. 05
Axis of Resistance — Proxy Force Intensity by Week
Relative intensity 0–10 per actor per week. Iran IRGC direct ops decline as attrition accumulates. Houthis activate Week 4 from zero. Hezbollah and PMF sustain throughout.
Fig. 06
Maritime Escalation — Choke Points & Vessel Interdiction
Hormuz closed Day 1. Salalah alternate hub droned Day 29. Houthi Bab al-Mandeb threat held in reserve. Dual-chokepoint scenario probability rises from 15% to 35% on Day 29.
Fig. 07
Nuclear Infrastructure Targeting — Escalation Ladder (Both Sides)
Cumulative distinct nuclear-related sites targeted. US/Israel strikes Iran fuel cycle: Natanz (Mar 21), Arak + Yazd (Mar 27–28). Iran hits Dimona area Mar 21. Each step met with counter-escalation — no threshold crossed without response.
War Trajectory — Key Inflection Events
DAY 1
Feb 28
Khamenei assassinated. Hormuz closed. IRIS Dena sunk. 5 actors enter simultaneously.
DAY 2
Mar 1
Hezbollah declares war. IDF invades Lebanon. 3 U.S. KIA. Beit Shemesh — 9 Israeli civilians killed.
DAY 3
Mar 2
Qatar downs 2 Iranian Su-24s. Assembly of Experts bombed. 9 countries at war. Golestan Palace hit.
DAY 22
Mar 21
U.S. bunker busters strike Natanz. Iran hits Dimona — 180 injured. Nuclear threshold crossed by both sides.
DAY 24–26
Mar 23–25
U.S. 15-point plan via Pakistan. Iran rejects. Prince Sultan struck 3x. IRGC Navy chief killed.
DAY 27–28
Mar 26–27
Arak + Yazd nuclear plants struck. Trump delays energy deadline to Apr 6. Iran partial Hormuz concession.
DAY 29
Mar 28
Houthis enter — ballistic missiles on S. Israel. Salalah droned. Bab al-Mandeb threatened. 8th actor.
enter